Which Sub-.500 NFL Teams Can Make Playoffs?

The Falcons are 1-4. Really. Can they make the playoffs? (Credit Opertinicy)

The following teams are under .500 after Week 5 of the 2013 NFL season: Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings. Did anyone see that coming (especially the first two)? The Texans are 2-3, their QB is mired in a record-setting slump, and they sit 2 games behind the Colts in the AFC South. The Falcons may be in even worse shape – 1-4 (after two straight home losses), 4 games behind division-leading New Orleans, and coming off a loss to the New York Jets.

Is your team under .500 right now? Relax – we’re here to talk you down off the ledge – well, some of you, anyway. Rest assured: if your team hasn’t won a game yet, you’re not making the playoffs. Just make peace with it. (Giants and Steelers fans: you’ve won Super Bowls. Recently. Take a year off.)

Let’s take a look at every NFL team that’s currently sitting under .500 after 5 weeks of the 2013 NFL season, and give you a realistic prediction as to their ability to make the NFL playoffs.

NFL playoff chances: NFC teams under .500

Dallas Cowboys (2-3): Here’s how bad the NFC East is in 2013: the Cowboys are 2-3 and still lead the division. They also have the only positive scoring differential. But if Dallas finishes 9-7, that’s not going to win them an NFC wild card berth – and will it be enough to win the division? Playoff chances: 60%.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3): It’s a one-bid playoff division in the NFC East, and the Eagles have all the offense they could want – but no defense. That will be the likely difference in the race with Dallas, who can match them in scoring and has (slightly) better D. Playoff chances: 20%.

Washington Redskins (1-3): The Redskins started 2012 at 3-6 before winning 7 straight to win the division. It’ll take that kind of effort to make the playoffs this year, and they don’t seem to have the same magic as they did a year ago. Then again, that might be exactly what the Redskins want us to say right about now. The NFC East is for the taking. Playoff chances: 20%.

New York Giants (0-5): Only in the NFC East can an 0-5 team be just 2 games out of the playoffs. The Giants are historically bad on defense right now, and Eli Manning is throwing rookie year interceptions. They have a chance – if the rest of the league implodes. Playoff chances: 0%.

Minnesota Vikings (1-3): Well, the Vikings took a step in the right direction by beating the Steelers in London. But they’re already 0-2 in the NFC North and have yet to play Green Bay. Their next 2 games (Carolina, NYG) are winnable, so they could be 3-3 heading into a Packers game Week 8. It’s an uphill climb, but the Packers are just 2-2 and the Bears are backsliding a bit. Playoff chances: 13%.

Carolina Panthers (1-3): Maybe if they fire Ron Rivera. Cam Newton has also proven he can’t win close games, but Carolina has no viable secondary option at quarterback. Playoff chances: 5%.

Atlanta Falcons (1-4): Two straight home losses, most recently to the Jets? With the Saints out to a 5-0 start and an “up” year in the NFC North (not to mention the 49ers), the Falcons will have to finish 10-6 to make the playoffs. That involves a 9-2 end to the regular season, with a schedule that includes the Seahawks, Saints, Packers and 49ers. It’s hard to believe, but… Playoff chances: 5%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4): Let’s save you some reading time. Playoff chances: 0%.

St. Louis Rams (2-3): The Rams are just one game under .500, but their 2 wins this year are at home vs. Arizona and Jacksonville. They’re not winning the NFC West, so they’ll have to get to 10 wins for a wild card. Anyone see the Rams going 8-3 in their last 11? Playoff chances: 2%.

NFL playoff chances: AFC teams under .500

Buffalo Bills (2-3): The Bills are a fun-to-watch team at home, where they’re 2-1 (and almost beat New England). On the road, they’re atrocious. They’re also 0-2 in the AFC East. Buffalo’s only chance is if an AFC wild card can be attained at 9-7 – and either Denver or Kansas City will snag the other one at 10 wins or better. Playoff chances: 15%.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4): Never thought we’d say this about a Steelers team during the Mike Tomlin era, but Pittsburgh is already dead in the AFC playoff chase 5 weeks into the NFL season. The offense is broken beyond repair right now; is anyone besides Heath Miller indispensable right now? Playoff chances: 0%.

Houston Texans (2-3): Ladies and gentlemen, the Houston Texans are 3rd in the AFC South, and carry a worse record than the Jets, Titans and Browns. Matt Schaub owns the NFL record for most consecutive games with an INT returned for a touchdown (4). They’re 2 games behind Indianapolis for the division lead. But the Texans control their own fate – they still have 3 games against Indy and the Titans, and they also get to play Jacksonville twice, plus the Raiders, Rams, and Cardinals. STILL – KC is all but a lock for a wild card spot, so the Texans almost have to finish 8-3 over their last 11. Playoff chances: 50%.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5): So, do the Jaguars take Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Tajh Boyd, Aaron Murray… oh, that’s another column. Playoff chances: -142,000%.

Oakland Raiders (2-3): Man, for a team that was supposed to be “all-time bad”, this Raiders bunch is fighting like crazy, huh? They’re not reaching the playoffs – they can’t overtake the Broncos and Chiefs, and they’re not going to reach 10 wins. But this team has half the talent of the Giants and 2 more wins. That tells you something – about both teams. Playoff chances: 0%.

San Diego Chargers (2-3): Philip Rivers is officially the most frustrating quarterback in the NFL. For a two-game stretch, he looks like the 5th-best QB in the league behind Aaron, Peyton, Drew and Tom (in some order). Then he loses to Oakland. The Chargers aren’t there this year. Playoff chances: 0%.